Options paper forward-tests

Two sleeves on moomoo paper 492333 — SIMULATE only, mechanics and fill tests · fleet dashboard
fear-fade: 37 unpaired structure(s)

Time Flies — weekly combo (IWM)

Delta-neutral put diagonal + call BWB, 8 DTE · rules: +10% BP target / −35% stop / exit T−24h
IWM ×1 · 8 DTE weeklyOpenD connectedbook emptymoomoo paper 492333next entry Thu 2026-09-171 close(s) queued for the ET window
Closed trades
9
since 2026-07-22
Win rate
89%
model: 80%
Avg / trade
+3.4% BP
model: +2.68% · Simon: +5.3%
Total P&L
+$103
net-est $-41 after fees

Book equity

Closed trades

tradeexitreasonP&L $% BPnet-est
IWM-202609182026-09-11target+36+10.5%+20
IWM-202609112026-09-10eve(24h-rule)+16+4.5%+0
IWM-202609042026-09-03eve(24h-rule)+18+5.3%+2
IWM-202608282026-08-27eve(24h-rule)+10+3.0%-6
IWM-202608212026-08-20target+38+11.2%+22
IWM-202608142026-08-13target+60+18.6%+44
IWM-202608072026-08-04stop-159-45.0%-175
IWM-202607312026-07-29target+48+12.9%+32
IWM-202607242026-07-22target+36+10.1%+20

Backtest reference

Model avg/trade
+2.68% BP
RUT synthetic, $60 fric, 733 wk
Model win rate
80%
target-hit 62% · eve 26% · stop 12%
Model annual
+66%/yr
on 2.3×BP sizing · loss yrs 1-in-5
Simon (claimed)
+5.3%/t
≈113%/yr on same sizing

Fear-fade — bull put spreads

16Δ/5Δ credit spreads at the Friday expiry nearest 45 DTE, one per symbol per day, ungated · exit ≤21 DTE · SIMULATE-only
SPY · QQQ · IWM daily, ungatedlast run 2026-09-14 19:45Z · 1h agovenue-markedtheta upnext window 2026-09-15 15:25–15:58 ETVIX pctile 21.8
Open structures
45
7 complete · 37 unpaired
Open cash flow
+$7,764
credit received at open
Venue P&L
+$2,147
moomoo unrealized, live · 44 of 45 marked
Closed
9
since reset 2026-07-25
37 half-filled structure(s) awaiting your decision
Half-filled structures are never auto-traded — the agent flags them at ≤21 DTE and leaves the close/complete/ride call to you.
structurestatuslegs (venue cost)DTEcashmax lossP&L
QQQ 665/605lone wing(665P unfilled) · +1 605P @ 1.5211d−$152−$152−$256
QQQ 665/605lone wing(665P unfilled) · +1 605P @ 1.5211d−$152−$152−$256
QQQ 670/615lone wing(670P unfilled) · +1 615P @ 1.3711d−$137−$137−$108
QQQ 679/625NAKED SHORT−1 679P @ 5.08 · (625P unfilled)11d+$508−$67,392+$318
SPY 728/670NAKED SHORT−1 728P @ 4.29 · (670P unfilled)11d+$429−$72,371+$304
SPY 731/680lone wing(731P unfilled) · +1 680P @ 1.2511d−$125−$125−$96
SPY 736/685NAKED SHORT−1 736P @ 3.85 · (685P unfilled)11d+$385−$73,215+$202
IWM 283/262NAKED SHORT−1 283P @ 2.13 · (262P unfilled)18d+$213−$28,087−$65
IWM 282/260NAKED SHORT−1 282P @ 2.44 · (260P unfilled)18d+$244−$27,956−$8
IWM 281/260NAKED SHORT−1 281P @ 2.80 · (260P unfilled)18d+$280−$27,820+$39
IWM 280/259NAKED SHORT−1 280P @ 2.15 · (259P unfilled)18d+$215−$27,785−$4
QQQ 675/615NAKED SHORT−1 675P @ 10.33 · (615P unfilled)18d+$1,033−$66,467+$717
QQQ 660/600complete−1 660P @ 9.86 · +1 600P @ 1.4818d+$838−$5,162+$590
QQQ 655/595lone wing(655P unfilled) · +1 595P @ 1.4118d−$141−$141−$88
QQQ 655/600lone wing(655P unfilled) · +1 600P @ 1.4818d−$148−$148−$199
SPY 727/670NAKED SHORT−1 727P @ 4.86 · (670P unfilled)18d+$486−$72,214+$553
SPY 722/665lone wing(722P unfilled) · +1 665P @ 1.2318d−$123−$123−$162
SPY 727/675NAKED SHORT−1 727P @ 4.86 · (675P unfilled)18d+$486−$72,214+$553
SPY 720/665lone wing(720P unfilled) · +1 665P @ 1.2318d−$123−$123−$162
IWM 276/250lone wing(276P unfilled) · +1 250P @ 0.5432d−$54−$54−$5
IWM 277/255lone wing(277P unfilled) · +1 255P @ 0.5632d−$56−$56+$17
IWM 275/255complete−1 275P @ 2.08 · +1 255P @ 0.5632d+$152−$1,848−$16
IWM 274/250complete−1 274P @ 2.68 · +1 250P @ 0.5432d+$214−$2,186+$46
IWM 270/245lone wing(270P unfilled) · +1 245P @ 0.4532d−$45−$45−$2
QQQ 652/590lone wing(652P unfilled) · +1 590P @ 1.7532d−$175−$175−$74
QQQ 655/595lone wing(655P unfilled) · +1 595P @ 1.4832d−$148−$148−$85
QQQ 665/610complete−1 665P @ 6.71 · +1 610P @ 1.4432d+$527−$4,973+$219
QQQ 653/595lone wing(653P unfilled) · +1 595P @ 1.4832d−$148−$148−$85
QQQ 657/600lone wing(657P unfilled) · +1 600P @ 1.3832d−$138−$138−$20
SPY 718/660lone wing(718P unfilled) · +1 660P @ 1.3232d−$132−$132−$64
SPY 720/665lone wing(720P unfilled) · +1 665P @ 1.3332d−$133−$133−$25
SPY 726/670complete−1 726P @ 4.10 · +1 670P @ 1.2132d+$289−$5,311+$11
SPY 725/670complete−1 725P @ 5.25 · +1 670P @ 1.2132d+$404−$5,096+$136
SPY 717/660lone wing(717P unfilled) · +1 660P @ 1.3232d−$132−$132−$64
SPY 733/685NAKED SHORT−1 733P @ 3.86 · (685P unfilled)32d+$386−$72,914−$90
IWM 269/245NAKED SHORT−1 269P @ 2.57 · (245P unfilled)39d+$257−$26,643+$33
QQQ 665/605NAKED SHORT−1 665P @ 5.78 · (605P unfilled)39d+$578−$65,922+$17
QQQ 660/600NAKED SHORT−1 660P @ 6.37 · (600P unfilled)39d+$637−$65,363+$150
QQQ 650/590lone wing(650P unfilled) · +1 590P @ 1.2339d−$123−$123+$7
SPY 722/665NAKED SHORT−1 722P @ 4.54 · (665P unfilled)39d+$454−$71,746+$18
SPY 715/660NAKED SHORT−1 715P @ 5.02 · (660P unfilled)39d+$502−$70,998+$139
SPY 710/650lone wing(710P unfilled) · +1 650P @ 1.0639d−$106−$106+$5
IWM 267/245complete−1 267P @ 2.17 · +1 245P @ 0.7346d+$144−$2,056+$7
QQQ 657/595NAKED SHORT−1 657P @ 5.95 · (595P unfilled)46d+$595−$65,105+$0
SPY 717/657awaiting fill(717P unfilled) · (657P unfilled)46d+$0——
signal (2026-09-11)skewrankstrikesexpfire
SPY1.44650.5717/6572026-10-30fire
QQQ1.36054.8657/5952026-10-30fire
IWM1.30093.5267/2452026-10-30fire
HALF spread at 11 DTE awaits user decision: SPY 728/670 half_short — not auto-closing
HALF spread at 11 DTE awaits user decision: QQQ 665/605 half_wing — not auto-closing
HALF spread at 11 DTE awaits user decision: QQQ 665/605 half_wing — not auto-closing
HALF spread at 11 DTE awaits user decision: SPY 731/680 half_wing — not auto-closing
updated 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC (Mon 16:30 ET) · refreshes every 15 min via com.jair.tf-dash · Time Flies: entries Thu 15:30 ET, marks daily 07:30 local, venue reconcile + queued closes in the 15:25–15:58 ET window (com.jair.tf-enter / tf-mark / tf-session) · fear-fade: com.jair.moomoo-fearfade, book venue-synced every run · writeups: research/timeflies_options_backtest_2026-07.md · STATUS.md §5.11/§0★★